AGP Executive Report

Data-Centre Power Push: IREN has unveiled its first major Australian data centre campus: an 800MW site in Bundey, South Australia, backed by a transmission connection agreement and submarine fibre links across Asia-Pacific, with energisation targeted for 2028 and hundreds of jobs expected during construction. Energy Costs & Grid Strain: A separate report warns the data-centre boom could drive power prices up sharply, as demand tightens the grid and adds environmental pressure—raising the stakes for developers and buyers watching operating costs. Housing Supply Signals: New Zealand’s building consents jumped in April, while Australia’s economy growth slowed in the first quarter, with data-centre investment propping up activity—an indirect reminder that construction momentum can be uneven. Market & Finance Watch: KPMG Australia’s COO has stepped aside amid a growing audit-client information scandal, keeping pressure on trust in the professional services sector that underpins property deals. Property Deal Spotlight: Delta Goodrem has bought a Rose Bay harbourside mansion for under $11m, adding another high-end transaction to Sydney’s luxury market.

Housing & Construction Watch: Building approvals fell 3.4% in April to 16,710 after a 10.5% drop in March, with NSW, WA and Victoria leading declines, while apartments rose in NSW and Tasmania jumped. Budget & Housing Tax Fallout: Housing Minister Clare O’Neil wouldn’t confirm she wants house prices to fall, arguing Labor’s tax changes target “sustainable growth” and home ownership gains, as the Coalition warns of market uncertainty. Renters Under Pressure: Canberra water bills are set to rise 6.3% in 2026/27, adding to cost stress for households already facing higher mortgage and rent pressures. Property Industry Moves: Burstone lifted earnings on improving South African property performance, while Australia showed early momentum in industrial assets. Infrastructure & Land Use: ACT signals light rail Stage 2B to Woden may slip into the 2030s as it prioritises the Northside Hospital pipeline. Energy Costs Tied to Homes: Vehicle-to-grid tech could help renters cut power bills by up to ~$2,000 a year, depending on battery size, as EV charging shifts toward bidirectional use. Local Development Dispute: A Kaurna traditional owner is joining a Federal Court fight over the North Adelaide golf course redevelopment, raising concerns about disturbance of ancestral remains.

Housing & Construction Watch: SQM Research data shows distressed home listings jumped 5.1% nationally in May to 3,847, with the biggest risk flagged in Sydney and Melbourne as rate pressure bites and outer suburbs with many first-home buyers look most vulnerable. Market Pulse: The ASX200 trimmed early losses to finish slightly down, with miners helping late while consumer stocks weighed after the Fair Work Commission lifted the minimum wage and real estate trusts slid on weaker April building approvals. Retail/Property Supply Chain: Bunnings is set to get bigger after Wesfarmers handed it control of Blackwoods and Workwear Group, bringing Hard Yakka and King Gee under the Bunnings umbrella from July 1. Design & Lifestyle: A surge in backyard pool interest is driving new modern build trends, with homeowners treating pools as lifestyle upgrades. Infrastructure & Land Use: Crown Melbourne detailed a $200m redevelopment, including new dining and a major theatre upgrade, with openings starting from late 2026 into 2027. Global Property Capital: M7 Real Estate bought a 13-asset Spanish logistics portfolio totalling 138,411 sqm for ESCIP, underscoring continued demand for industrial real estate.

Housing & Affordability: Sydney and Melbourne home prices have slipped 3.1% and 3.5% from recent peaks, with national growth flat in May—fueling fresh debate over whether the housing “super cycle” is finally ending. Rent Pressure: Modelling warns Sydney renters could see rises of up to $34 a week as negative gearing restrictions tighten supply of new rentals. Policy & Supply: South Australia’s stamp-duty abolition for downsizers is already drawing hundreds of registrations, while industry argues state budgets must fund serviced land, infrastructure and faster approvals to unlock new supply. Construction & Research: UniSQ has won nearly $1.1m for 3D-printed concrete work aimed at quieter, more sustainable housing. Big Projects: ACT’s Northside Hospital first-stage cost lands at $1.5b, with completion targeted by 2031. Market Watch: Small builders warn apprentice training is becoming too risky, threatening delivery of housing targets. Property Deals: A rare oceanfront clifftop site in Hallett Cove hits the market, with potential for multiple new residences. Strata & Ops: CLLIX appoints Jonathan Flannery to lead body corporate and strata relations. Consumer Safety (Property-adjacent): ACCC is investigating banned high-powered magnetic toy sales online.

Housing & Tax Fallout: Auction clearance rates are slipping and some capital city home prices are starting to fall after Labor’s budget changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing, with analysts warning the damage is more about long-running policy failures than the budget alone. Brisbane Olympics Build: Construction has begun on the 2032 Olympic main stadium at Victoria Park, with protests continuing as work moves into the next phase. Western Sydney Logistics: ESR and Mitsubishi Estate Asia will develop a prime Huntingwood logistics estate in Western Sydney in a deal worth about A$700m, targeting construction from late 2026 and warehousing delivery from late 2027. Data Centres & Power: Google, European Energy Australia and AirTrunk are backing a 25MW Mulwala Solar Farm in regional NSW to help meet growing data-centre electricity demand. Market Snapshot: The ASX 200 edged down slightly as investors weighed US-Iran uncertainty and mixed bank sentiment, while IT stocks jumped. Wealth Gap Spotlight: Oxfam says billionaire wealth kept surging in 2025 while poverty persists, reigniting pressure on housing and tax fairness.

Housing Market Turn: Cotality says national home prices flatlined in May, with Sydney down 0.9% and Melbourne down 0.8% as higher rates and Labor’s planned property tax changes hit buyer confidence, while Perth and Brisbane bucked the trend with gains. Investor Shock: Auction clearance rates plunged to a six-year low, with Labor’s Budget curbing negative gearing for new builds and tightening the capital gains discount expected to reduce rental supply and lift pressure on renters. Capital City Split: Darwin home values hit a record, up nearly $100,000 over the year, while other capitals showed mixed momentum. Policy Fallout Politics: A Reuters report says One Nation overtook Labor in a national poll for the first time, pointing to voter backlash over the Budget’s property tax changes. Construction & Land Use: Brisbane’s 2032 Olympic stadium works begin at Victoria Park after protesters were removed, but the project remains mired in disputes over Indigenous cultural protection and green space. Logistics Real Estate: ESR and Mitsubishi Estate Asia are partnering on a $700m Western Sydney logistics estate at Huntingwood, with construction due to start in late 2026. Data Centres Meet Renewables: Google, European Energy Australia and AirTrunk plan to bring a 25MW Mulwala Solar Farm online to help power Australia’s growing data-centre demand.

Housing Market Watch: Australian capital city home prices dipped in May for the first time since January 2025, with experts warning the slide could last a year and cut values by up to 10%, as higher interest rates and inflation squeeze buyer budgets and auction clearance weakens. Tax Policy & Affordability: Housing Minister Clare O’Neil says the government will “speedily” sort carve-outs for capital gains tax changes, defending the shift away from the 50% CGT discount toward an inflation-based approach—while acknowledging it’s tricky for fast-growing, low-cost businesses. Construction Pressure: Middle East conflict-linked material cost spikes are stalling parts of Sydney’s apartment pipeline, with industry warning some projects may not be viable if started today. Scam Alert (Property): WA consumer regulators warn property scams are getting harder to spot after settlement agents were targeted with fake “overseas owner” emails seeking title changes and sale help for a vacant block. Infrastructure Tenders: Perth’s METRONET Swan ferry expansion is moving ahead, with tenders sought for new Applecross and Matilda Bay terminals.

AUKUS Undersea Tech: The US, UK and Australia have agreed to develop unmanned underwater drone systems under AUKUS Pillar Two, with delivery starting in 2027, aiming to protect undersea infrastructure and boost reconnaissance and strike capability. Submarine Procurement Update: AUKUS ministers also moved to streamline Australia’s Virginia-class submarine plan, shifting to three in-service boats to simplify supply chains and maintenance. Housing Affordability Pressure (Sydney/Melbourne): New analysis says even as house prices soften, borrowing capacity is falling faster—leaving many would-be buyers further from entry, with Sydney and Melbourne forecast declines not translating into easier finance. Modular Building Trend: Chinese modular and prefab construction is being marketed as faster and cheaper, with examples of rapid builds drawing interest from buyers abroad, including in Australia. Wellness Home Demand (Tasmania/NSW): Tasmania’s slow population growth hasn’t dented interest in home wellness upgrades, while NSW demand is spreading beyond inner areas for infrared sauna setups. Maritime Capability: The RAN commissioned HMAS Eyre, the second Arafura-class offshore patrol vessel, strengthening Australia’s maritime surveillance and border protection.

Tax & Housing Policy: The Budget’s proposed CGT overhaul would replace the 50% discount with inflation indexation, meaning investors could be taxed on “real” gains instead of nominal ones—potentially backfiring for revenue in a weak, high-inflation market. Investor Shockwaves: Proposed negative gearing changes would quarantine losses on newly acquired established properties against future property income/gains, shifting demand toward cash-flow-friendly builds. Affordability Pressure: Brisbane’s new supply is skewing heavily to luxury, with entry-level prices often around $2m+ and very few projects under $1m, worsening the affordable housing shortage. Sydney Short-Stay Rules: The City of Sydney is weighing limits or a ban on short-stay accommodation, arguing it drains long-term rentals; NSW has 48,267 registered STRAs. Market Signals: PropTrack-style reporting points to ongoing volatility, with auction activity steady and sellers urged to act amid expectations of further price softness. Big Ticket Sales: Melbourne’s Toorak sees a $124m mansion record as ultra-wealthy buyers keep paying trophy prices.

Housing & Policy: Australia’s housing debate is back in the spotlight as modelling and industry voices warn Labor’s 2026 tax and CGT changes could push rents higher and cool investor activity, with renters and supply both under pressure. Construction & Safety: CSIRO’s planned closure of a North Ryde fire testing lab has sparked alarm from building safety experts, who fear weaker regulation and delays could leave future cladding-style crises harder to prevent. Olympics Land Use: Brisbane’s 2032 stadium site at Victoria Park is seeing arrests and police action as protesters are removed ahead of works, with land transfer to the Games authority set to begin immediately. Property Crime: A NSW property manager, Sarah-Jane Watts, pleaded guilty to stealing about $180k from rental trust funds and bonds, using fake payments to conceal the fraud. Commercial Property: Deicorp and Marriott are bringing the Courtyard by Marriott brand back to Sydney via the Falcon & Alexander Crows Nest development, adding 100 rooms with a late-2027 opening. Energy & Infrastructure: AEMO and Transgrid have approved Australia’s first 8-hour BESS for full operations, marking another step in grid-scale storage rollout.

Budget 2026 Housing Tax Backlash: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese used social media to answer housing questions after Labor’s capital gains and negative gearing changes sparked investor anger, with Treasury framing the move as shifting who owns housing rather than boosting supply. Policy Fight Over Rents and Supply: Labor dismissed “vested interests” modelling from property groups that warns the tax package could cut home building and lift rents, as the debate intensifies in Parliament. Market Shock Hits Property Firms: Dashdot’s co-founder blamed the budget tax changes for the company’s collapse and liquidation, saying investor confidence froze and bank borrowing capacity fell. Legal Pressure on Real Estate Assets: Dexus faces a forced sale of its Melbourne Airport stake after a court challenge, highlighting how super funds are pushing through major property-related deals. Property Crime Escalation: A former real estate agent in Melbourne was arrested after police found a suspected bomb and weapons at his home. Energy/Infrastructure Spillover: Shell escalated a $83m clean-up dispute into WA’s Supreme Court, while major battery projects and airport infrastructure coverage underline the broader construction pipeline.

CGT/negative gearing showdown: Labor has pushed its “first step” capital gains tax and negative gearing reforms into parliament despite backlash, with Treasury modelling claiming about 90% of young Australians would be better off (before housing-market impacts) while investors and property-linked groups warn it will hit risk appetite and renters. Local investment signals (Adelaide): Herron Todd White’s Prestige Property Index crowns Adelaide as the top prestige market for growth opportunity, and PropTrack data spotlights Adelaide’s northern suburbs (like Elizabeth North) as standout rental-yield hotspots. Housing delivery friction: ABC reports traffic bottlenecks in Melbourne’s outer north housing estates, with Donnybrook Road volumes surging and residents changing routines to cope. Policy + risk in the background: Surveys suggest Australians are pulling back from shares, start-ups and property as the tax changes cool sentiment. Infrastructure/industry: International Graphite gets a building permit to start earthworks on Australia’s first graphite micronising facility in Collie, aiming for mechanical completion next year.

Budget 2026 & Housing Tax Overhaul: Treasurer Jim Chalmers has introduced legislation to Parliament to enact Labor’s capital gains tax and negative gearing changes, plus a $250-a-year workers’ rebate and a $1,000 standard deduction—moves that are already drawing heavy backlash from business and some state leaders. RBA Inflation Watch: The latest inflation data shows headline CPI easing to 4.2% in April, but the RBA’s “underlying” measure rose, keeping rate uncertainty alive. Property Market Impact: New research says negative gearing and CGT settings are helping older, wealthier investors take a bigger slice of the rental market, potentially worsening affordability for low- and middle-income households. Data Centres vs Clean Energy: Greenpeace warns AI data-centre growth could increase reliance on gas unless renewable supply and storage are backed by enforceable requirements. Housing Build Speed Push: Housing Minister Clare O’Neil backs a Scandinavian-style “kit of parts” modular building trial to speed construction. Major Legal Action: The Commonwealth launches a $2bn lawsuit against 3M over PFAS “forever chemicals” contamination at Defence bases. Commercial Solar Win: ClearVue lands a Canva HQ project in Sydney for bespoke solar glazing and rooftop solar. Local Planning Friction: Australia Venue Co’s JB O’Reilly’s beer-garden expansion plans were rejected by WA planners.

Housing & Construction Policy: The Albanese government will trial an open-source “kit of parts” system for building homes, with $39.3m (about $40m) earmarked for states and territories to speed construction and cut costs—aimed at helping Australia catch up on its 1.2m homes target. Tax & Investor Strategy: Buyers agents on the Gold Coast say proposed negative gearing and CGT changes are already nudging investors toward land, premium land and new-build/off-the-plan deals rather than older established stock. Macro Watch for Property: Australia’s headline inflation eased to 4.2% in April after a fuel excise cut, but underlying inflation stayed sticky, keeping RBA rate pressure on the radar for borrowers and housing demand. Local Development & Safety: Perth’s City of Perth has approved a $22.8m revitalisation plan for Northbridge’s James Street, focused on trees, lighting, wider footpaths and safer pedestrian access. Risk & Insurance: PERILS estimates insured losses from the Nov 2025 QLD/NSW storms at $2.943bn, with residential property the biggest share. Energy & Infrastructure: Greater Western Water has appointed a Jacobs–Stantec engineering partner for a five-year water and wastewater planning and delivery program in Melbourne’s west.

Markets & Rates: Australia’s April inflation eased to 4.2% (from 4.6%), helped by cheaper petrol after the fuel excise cut—though “underlying” inflation still ticked up to 3.4%, keeping RBA rate-rise fears alive. Housing Policy: Housing Minister Clare O’Neil says Labor’s negative gearing and CGT changes will have only a “modest” impact on prices, while the big driver remains the mismatch between homes built and needed. Data Centres & Power: Greenpeace Australia Pacific ramps up pressure on the data-centre boom, arguing new loads and gas generation risk delaying coal shutdowns—sparking fresh calls for tighter energy planning. Construction/Infrastructure: Ford cools Ranger EV hopes, saying current battery-electric tech can’t yet deliver the ute’s capability. Industry Moves: Element 25 locks in long-term mining and haulage contracts for its Butcherbird expansion, strengthening pit-to-port operations. Defence Supply Chain: ASC’s Virginia-class work scores new supplier qualifications in WA, widening the local pipeline into the US submarine network.

Olympics Protest Standoff: Brisbane’s Victoria Park—home to old-growth trees and Aboriginal cultural significance—faces fencing from June 1 as 2032 stadium works begin, with activists warning they’ll stay under Human Rights Act protections. Water Tech Rollout: Hunter Water is expanding its digital metering pilot with Itron, starting Q3 2026 with 2,000 smart ultrasonic meters aimed at cutting non-revenue water and spotting leaks sooner. Resources & Power Momentum: Element 25 is reviewing its US HPMSM project plan after EV demand shifts, while Greatland cleared key environmental approvals for Havieron and targets a June-quarter final investment decision. Strata & Property Watch: A Smart Strata seminar in Cairns is set to unpack who’s responsible for maintenance and major works—timely as owners weigh rising costs and compliance pressure. Markets Mood: Asia trade was mixed as US-Iran tensions spooked investors, with New Zealand shares edging up.